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Friday, 19 September 2014

The pros & cons of Scottish independence: referendum countdown

Scotland has rejected independence following a historically high turnout at yesterday's referendum. Chief counting officer Mary Pitcaithly has officially announced that the No side won by 55 per cent to 45 per cent. Clackmannanshire Council was the first local authority to announce its result at around 1.30am. Although nationalists had been predicted to perform well in the area, a surprise majority No vote was declared, setting the tone for the rest of the night. Unionists celebrated victories in Orkney, the Scottish Borders, East Lothian, Stirling and Midlothian. In Edinburgh, they had a 22 per cent lead of 61 per cent to 39 per cent. The nationalists won Dundee by 57 per cent and Glasgow by 55 per cent – but this was not high enough to compensate for their performance elsewhere. Alistair Darling, the leader of the Better Together campaign, said the victory was a "momentous day not only for Scotland but for the United Kingdom as a whole". Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon accepted defeat saying she felt "deep personal and political disappointment". She said she had thought victory was "doable" after a swing to the Yes campaign but said it had subsequently fallen short. Here's everything you need to know about the referendum and a look at what happens next:
  • How many people voted? An unprecedented 4,285,323 people, 97 per cent of the electorate, registered to vote, including a record 789,024 postal vote applications. The actual turnout was 84.5 per cent. The results from all 32 council areas showed that the No side won with 2,001,926 votes over 1,617,989 for the Yes side. There were 2,608 polling stations open across the country and Scots had between 7am and 10pm to cast their vote. Elections Scotland had warned that recounts would only be allowed at a local level on the basis of concerns about process, not the closeness of a result.
  • What time was the Scottish referendum result announced? The polls closed at 10pm last night and the count began immediately. All 32 local authority areas confirmed their totals overnight, with the counting officer in each area passing on the result to the chief counting officer Mary Pitcaithly in Edinburgh. The Fife result, which came out just after 6.00am, showed that Scotland had rejected independence. Pitcaithly then officially declared the result of the referendum at the Royal Highland Centre outside Edinburgh.
  • Who was eligible to vote? Everyone over the age of 16 who lives in Scotland. That means the 800,000 Scots who live in other parts of the UK were not able to vote, while the 400,000 people from elsewhere in Britain who live in Scotland were. All the main players agreed this was "the fairest way" to do things, the BBC says.
  • When did Scotland become part of the UK? The acts of union between Scotland and England were passed in 1706, taking effect on 1 May, 1707. On that day, the Parliament of Great Britain was formed.
  • Why did each side agree to the Union? The English were keen to make sure Scotland didn't choose a different monarch from the one sitting on the English throne. Meanwhile, the Scots were seriously "cash-strapped" after an "economically disastrous scheme to attempt to colonise the Isthmus of Panama in the late 1690s", says the Daily Telegraph.
  • What question were voters asked at the referendum? This bit is simple. There was one question with a yes or no answer: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"
  • Did the TV debates on Scottish independence make a difference? Most commentators chalked up the two televised debates as a score draw. Alistair Darling, leader of the pro-Union Better Together campaign, was widely regarded as the victor in the first debate, during which his focus on the detail of which currency an independent Scotland would use and whether it would remain within the EU (see below) appeared to have SNP leader Alex Salmond struggling for convincing answers. But after the second contest, Salmond emerged the clear winner in post-debate polling. Darling was criticised for getting bogged down in detail while attempting to re-run the earlier debate, while Salmond's more combative approach paid dividends. The Yes campaign's vote rose sharply in opinion polls carried out in the weeks after the second debate.
  • Was the referendum result a surprise?The No campaign was sitting on a clear lead until very recently when the two sides suddenly appeared neck and neck. The Yes campaign took the lead for the first time a few weeks ago and subsequent polls put the No vote back in front by only the narrowest of margins. Nevertheless, bookmakers had installed the No campaign as a clear favourite and British financial markets appeared relatively confident that independence would be rejected.
  • Why was the vote held on 18 September?The all-important date was chosen – after much deliberation – by Salmond. The BBC says the chosen day took into account factors such as Scottish winter weather, the UK party conference season and public holidays. It notes that 2014 is the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn in 1314. Salmond may have been hoping Scottish republicanism would be stirred by commemorations of Robert the Bruce's famous victory over the English army.
  • What side were politicians backing? It won't surprise you to learn that the SNP wanted independence. The Scottish Greens also wanted to break free from the UK. Labour, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats all wanted to maintain the Union (although the Scottish-born Labour MP for Leeds East, George Mudie, had said he would vote Yes if he were eligible to take part).
  • What about foreign politicians? Barack Obama was the most high-profile foreign leader to enter the fray, saying that the United States wanted to see the UK remaining "strong, robust and united". While Obama went out of his way to say that the decision was up to Scottish voters, he left no doubt about his position. "I would say that the United Kingdom has been an extraordinary partner to us," he said. "From the outside at least, it looks like things have worked pretty well, and we obviously have a deep interest in making sure that one of the closest allies that we will ever have remains a strong, robust, united and effective partner." Many European leaders, particularly those facing separatist movements within their own countries, were openly hostile towards Scottish independence. With one eye on Catalan nationalists, the Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy insisted that an independent Scotland could not expect automatic membership of the EU. "It's very clear to me, as it is for everybody else in the world, that a country that would obtain independence from the EU would remain out of the EU," he said. "That is good for Scottish citizens to know and for all EU citizens to know."
  • And what about celebrities? Prominent Scots turned out on both sides of the debate. Sean Connery, perhaps the most celebrated supporter of independence, said: "As a Scot and as someone with a lifelong love for both Scotland and the arts, I believe the opportunity of independence is too good to miss." On the unionist side, JK Rowling donated £1m to Better Together. "This separation will not be quick and clean," she said. "It will take microsurgery to disentangle three centuries of close interdependence, after which we will have to deal with three bitter neighbours." An announcement from Andy Murrary that "No campaign negativity" had "totally swayed" his view became the most retweeted tweet on referendum day, with more than 18,000 people sharing his message with their own followers.
  • Does a No vote mean Salmond's political career is over? "Don't bet on it," says his biographer David Torrance in the Daily Telegraph. Torrance predicted that a Yes vote of between 35 and 40 per cent would allow Salmond to "point to progress" and hang on as the SNP's leader. The Yes campaign has surpassed this mark with a 45 per cent vote. There was speculation this morning that Salmond might step down as leader of the SNP, but the First Minister insists that Scottish politics has been revolutionised by his campaign. Salmond said this morning that he expected quick delivery of the package of new powers from Westminster and highlighted the fact that the referendum had inspired thousands of people who had never previously voted to take part in the democratic process.
  • Is David Cameron's political career saved? Political insiders said Cameron would likely have faced a vote of no confidence if a referendum he offered, on terms he accepted, resulted in a break-up of the UK. Some say he has had the narrowest of political escapes, but he still faces serious questions about the future of Britain's constitutional structure and will now have to deliver the consolation prize of enhanced powers for the Scottish Parliament which he was forced to concede in the latter stages of the No campaign.
  • What happens now? "This referendum may have ended one debate in Scotland – for now. It has, however, lit the touchpaper on the explosive question of where power lies in the UK," says the BBC's Nick Robinson. Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems have all pledged to devolve more powers to Scotland and the focus has now turned to potentially major changes to the UK's constitutional structure. Cameron today committed himself to offering Scotland new powers, but made clear that this would depend on the next general election and a settlement that would exclude Scottish MPs from voting on many issues confined to England. Robinson suggests that this would create two classes of MP with the possibility of a government having a majority to pass certain laws but not others. Source: The Week UK