Australia and North America have long fought fires together – but new research reveals that has to change

Doug Richardson, UNSW Sydney and Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ

Climate change is lengthening fire seasons across much of the world. This means the potential for wildfires at any time of the year, in both hemispheres, is increasing.

That poses a problem. Australia regularly shares firefighting resources with the United States and Canada. But these agreements rest on the principle that when North America needs these personnel and aircraft, Australia doesn’t, and vice versa. Climate change means this assumption no longer holds.

The devastating Los Angeles wildfires in January, the United States winter, show how this principle is being tested. The US reportedly declined Australia’s public offer of assistance because Australia was in the midst of its traditional summer fire season. Instead, the US sought help from Canada and Mexico.

But to what extent do fire seasons in Australia and North America actually overlap? Our new research examined this question. We found an alarming increase in the overlap of the fire seasons, suggesting both regions must invest far more in their own permanent firefighting capacity.

What we did

We investigated fire weather seasons – that is, the times of the year when atmospheric conditions such as temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed are conducive to fire.

The central question we asked was: how many days each year do fire weather seasons in Australia and North America overlap?

To determine this, we calculated the length of the fire weather seasons in the two regions in each year, and the number of days when the seasons occur at the same time. We then analysed reconstructed historical weather data to assess fire-season overlap for the past 45 years. We also analysed climate model data to assess changes out to the end of this century.

And the result? On average, fire weather occurs in both regions simultaneously for about seven weeks each year. The greatest risk of overlap occurs in the Australian spring – when Australia’s season is beginning and North America’s is ending.

The overlap has increased by an average of about one day per year since 1979. This might not sound like much. But it translates to nearly a month of extra overlap compared to the 1980s and 1990s.

The increase is driven by eastern Australia, where the fire weather season has lengthened at nearly twice the rate of western North America. More research is needed to determine why this is happening.

Longer, hotter, drier

Alarmingly, as climate change worsens and the atmosphere dries and heats, the overlap is projected to increase.

The extent of the overlap varied depending on which of the four climate models we used. Assuming an emissions scenario where global greenhouse gas emissions begin to stabilise, the models projected an increase in the overlap of between four and 29 days a year.

What’s behind these differences? We think it’s rainfall. The models project quite different rainfall trends over Australia. Those projecting a dry future also project large increases in overlapping fire weather. What happens to ours and North America’s rainfall in the future will have a large bearing on how fire seasons might change.

While climate change will dominate the trend towards longer overlapping fire seasons, El Niño and La Niña may also play a role.

These climate drivers involve fluctuations every few years in sea surface temperature and air pressure in part of the Pacific Ocean. An El Niño event is associated with a higher risk of fire in Australia. A La Niña makes longer fire weather seasons more likely in North America.

There’s another complication. When an El Niño occurs in the Central Pacific region, this increases the chance of overlap in fire seasons of North America and Australia. We think that’s because this type of El Niño is especially associated with dry conditions in Australia’s southeast, which can fuel fires.

But how El Niño and La Niña will affect fire weather in future is unclear. What’s abundantly clear is that global warming will lead to more overlap in fire seasons between Australia and North America – and changes in Australia’s climate are largely driving this trend.

Looking ahead

Firefighters and their aircraft are likely to keep crossing the Pacific during fire emergencies.

But it’s not difficult to imagine, for example, simultaneous fires occurring in multiple Australian states during spring, before any scheduled arrival of aircraft from the US or Canada. If North America is experiencing late fires that year and cannot spare resources, Australia’s capabilities may be exceeded.

Likewise, even though California has the largest civil aerial firefighting fleet in the world, the recent Los Angeles fires highlighted its reliance on leased equipment.

Fire agencies are becoming increasingly aware of this clash. And a royal commission after the 2019–20 Black Summer fires recommended Australia develop its own fleet of firefighting aircraft.

Long, severe fire seasons such as Black Summer prompted an expansion of Australia’s permanent aerial firefighting fleet, but more is needed.

As climate change accelerates, proactive fire management, such as prescribed burning, is also important to reduce the risk of uncontrolled fire outbreaks.

Doug Richardson, Research Associate in Climate Science, UNSW Sydney and Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro, Climate Researcher, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Tempted to turn on the aircon? Science says use fans until it’s 27°C

New Africa, Shutterstock Federico Tartarini, University of Sydney; Angie Bone, Monash University, and Ollie Jay, University of Sydney

Many Australians struggle to keep themselves cool affordably and effectively, particularly with rising electricity prices. This is becoming a major health concern, especially for our most vulnerable people such as the elderly, pregnant women and people with cardiovascular diseases.

Air conditioning is often seen as the only solution to this problem. But relying too heavily on aircon has major downsides. These include hefty electricity bills, increased greenhouse gas emissions, strain on an already weak electricity grid, and dumping heat from buildings to the outside – further heating the outdoor air.

Our latest research, published in the Medical Journal of Australia, highlights a simple yet effective solution: a “fan-first” cooling approach.

The approach is simple: use electric fans as your first cooling strategy, and only turn on air conditioning when the indoor temperature exceeds 27°C.

Fan-First Cooling: The Smart Way to Beat Australia’s Heat Crisis (Federico Tartarini)

The solution: ‘fan-first’ cooling

Electric fans can make you feel more comfortable on a hot day simply by moving the air around you. This helps our body release heat in two ways: improving the transfer heat from your body into the air, and increasing the evaporation of sweat from your skin.

A gentle breeze can make you feel up to 4°C cooler, even when the weather is very hot and humid.

This allows you to increase the aircon set-point (the temperature at which cooling turns on) from 23-24°C to 27-28°C. This simple change can significantly reduce the amount of time your aircon is running, leading to substantial energy savings.

For example, in our previous research we showed raising the office air conditioning set-point from 24 to 26.5°C, with supplementary air movement from desk and ceiling fans, reduced energy consumption by 32%, without compromising thermal comfort.

Don’t fans still use electricity to run?

Yes fans still use electricity, but it’s as little as 3% of the electricity used to run air conditioning. That means you can run more than 30 fans with the same amount of energy it takes to run a single aircon unit.

A basic pedestal fan is cheap to buy (A$20 to $150), requires no installation and minimal maintenance, and can be easily moved around to keep you cool in any part of your house. Simply turn on the fan as soon as you start feeling slightly warm.

Fans cool you, whereas aircon cools the whole space, which is less efficient.

We also previously showed that using fans rather than airconditioning is a more effective emissions reduction strategy than switching from old-fashioned incandescent light bulbs to LED lighting.

The problem with over-reliance on aircon

Globally, the use of air conditioning is rapidly increasing. Aircon units sales have tripled since 1990 and are projected to triple again in 2050. It is becoming the go-to solution to heat management.

Aircon is effective but is expensive to buy, run and maintain.

A recent survey showed while most people have aircon, two thirds did not use it due to cost concerns.

Beyond the financial burden, the environmental impact of aircon is substantial. In Australia, electricity mainly comes from burning fossil fuels, creating greenhouse gas emissions. Even with the growth of renewable energy, the sheer demand for aircon cooling could strain the transition and the grid.

Furthermore, the refrigerants used in most aircon units are potent greenhouse gases. It will also take time to replace older and less efficient aircon units.

Aircon units also release heat into the outdoor environment, worsening the urban heat island effect – the phenomenon where cities are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas.

Finally, over-reliance on aircon might reduce our ability to cope with heat. If we constantly keep our indoor temperatures very low, our bodies may not acclimatise to warmer summer conditions, making us more vulnerable during power outages.

Annual sales of air conditioning units have more than tripled globally since 1990. aapsky, Shutterstock

Using fans safely and effectively

While fans offer numerous benefits, it’s important to use them correctly, especially in very hot indoor conditions.

There’s a common misconception that fans should be turned off above 35°C because they might blow hot air onto the skin. This ignores the crucial role fans play in evaporating sweat.

We have established safer and more accurate temperature thresholds for fan use by conducting laboratory studies. Just remember to check the temperature indoors, not outdoors.

Electric fans can be safely used in indoor temperatures up to:

• 39°C for young, healthy adults.
• 38°C for older adults.
• 37°C for older adults taking anticholinergic medications (which can impair sweating).

Above these indoor temperatures, fans could worsen heat strain by increasing cardiovascular strain and core body temperature. In such situations, alternative cooling strategies such as wetting the skin, moving to a cooler place, or turning the aircon on are essential.

Below these thresholds, we have proven, in laboratory studies, that there’s no reason to switch fans off, because they provide further thermal comfort and reduce heat stress.

Climate change means many people are experiencing hotter summers. Zhuravlev Andrey, Shutterstock

Take action now

Based on our field and lab research, we suggest five simple steps to using fans for managing heat at home:

1. consider buying pedestal or ceiling fans

2. point the fan at your body and adjust the speed to your liking

3. wear light clothing and stay hydrated

4. if you have aircon, increase the set-point to 27-28°C

5. enjoy a reduced energy bill and increased comfort.

You may also want to ask your employer to install fans at your workplace and share this “fan-first” cooling strategy with family and friends.

Let’s work together towards a more sustainable future by reducing our reliance on energy-intensive air conditioning. This will lead to lower electricity costs, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and increased resilience to heat.

Federico Tartarini, Senior Lecturer, School of Architecture Design and Planning, University of Sydney; Angie Bone, Associate Professor of Practice in Planetary Health, Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, and Ollie Jay, Professor of Heat & Health; Director of Heat & Health Research Incubator; Director of Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Earth’s oceans once turned green – and they could change again

Were Earth’s oceans once green? 100Y Design/Shutterstock Cédric M. John, Queen Mary University of London

Nearly three fourths of Earth is covered by oceans, making the planet look like a pale blue dot from space. But Japanese researchers have made a compelling case that Earth’s oceans were once green, in a study published in Nature.

The reason Earth’s oceans may have looked different in the ancient past is to do with their chemistry and the evolution of photosynthesis. As a geology undergraduate student, I was taught about the importance of a type of rock deposit known as the banded iron formation in recording the planet’s history.

Banded iron formations were deposited in the Archean and Paleoproterozoic eons, roughly between 3.8 and 1.8 billion years ago. Life back then was confined to one cell organisms in the oceans. The continents were a barren landscape of grey, brown and black rocks and sediments.

Rain falling on continental rocks dissolved iron which was then carried to the oceans by rivers. Other sources of iron were volcanoes on the ocean floor. This iron will become important later.

Cross section of banded iron formation in Karijini National park, in the Hamersley Range, Western Australia. Hans Wismeijer/Shutterstock

The Archaean eon was a time when Earth’s atmosphere and ocean were devoid of gaseous oxygen, but also when the first organisms to generate energy from sunlight evolved. These organisms used anaerobic photosynthesis, meaning they can do photosynthesis in the absence of oxygen.

It triggered important changes as a byproduct of anaerobic photosynthesis is oxygen gas. Oxygen gas bound to iron in seawater. Oxygen only existed as a gas in the atmosphere once the seawater iron could neutralise no more oxygen.

Eventually, early photosynthesis led to the “great oxidation event”, a major ecological turning point that made complex life on Earth possible. It marked the transition from a largely oxygen free Earth to one with large amounts of oxygen in the ocean and atmosphere.

The “bands” of different colours in banded iron formations record this shift with an alternation between deposits of iron deposited in the absence of oxygen and red oxidised iron.

The case for green oceans

The recent paper’s case for green oceans in the Archaean eon starts with an observation: waters around the Japanese volcanic island of Iwo Jima have a greenish hue linked to a form of oxidised iron - Fe(III). Blue-green algae thrive in the green waters surrounding the island.

Despite their name, blue-green algae are primitive bacteria and not true algae. In the Archaean eon, the ancestors of modern blue-green algae evolved alongside other bacteria that use ferrous iron instead of water as the source of electrons for photosynthesis. This points to high levels of iron in the ocean.

The ocean around Iwo Jima has a greenish hue. Phan Lee McCaskill/US Navy

Photosynthetic organisms use pigments (mostly chlorophyll) in their cells to transform CO₂ into sugars using the energy of the sun. Chlorophyll gives plants their green colour. Blue-green algae are peculiar because they carry the common chlorophyll pigment, but also a second pigment called phycoerythrobilin (PEB).

In their paper, the researchers found that genetically engineered modern blue-green algae with PEB grow better in green waters. Although chlorophyll is great for photosynthesis in the spectra of light visible to us, PEB seems to be superior in green-light conditions.

Before the rise of photosynthesis and oxygen, Earth’s oceans contained dissolved reduced iron (iron deposited in the absence of oxygen). Oxygen released by the rise of photosynthesis in the Archean eon then led to oxidised iron in seawater. The paper’s computer simulations also found oxygen released by early photosynthesis led to a high enough concentration of oxidised iron particles to turn the surface water green.

Once all iron in the ocean was oxidised, free oxygen (0₂) existed in Earth’s oceans and atmosphere. So a major implication of the study is that pale-green dot worlds viewed from space are good candidates planets to harbour early photosynthetic life.

The changes in ocean chemistry were gradual. The Archaean period lasted 1.5 billion years. This is more than half of Earth’s history. By comparison, the entire history of the rise and evolution of complex life represents about an eighth of Earth’s history.

Almost certainly, the colour of the oceans changed gradually during this period and potentially oscillated. This could explain why blue-green algae evolved both forms of photosynthetic pigments. Chlorophyll is best for white light which is the type of sunlight we have today. Taking advantage of green and white light would have been an evolutionary advantage.

Could oceans change colour again?

The lesson from the recent Japanese paper is that the colour of our oceans are linked to water chemistry and the influence of life. We can imagine different ocean colours without borrowing too much from science fiction.

Purple oceans would be possible on Earth if the levels of sulphur were high. This could be linked to intense volcanic activity and low oxygen content in the atmosphere, which would lead to the dominance of purple sulphur bacteria.

Red oceans are also theoretically possible under intense tropical climates when red oxidised iron forms from the decay of rocks on the land and is carried to the oceans by rivers or winds. Or if a type of algae linked to “red tides” came to dominate the surface oceans.

These red algae are common in areas with intense concentration of fertiliser such as nitrogen. In the modern oceans, this tends to happen in coastline close to sewers.

As our sun ages, it will first become brighter leading to increased surface evaporation and intense UV light. This may favour purple sulphur bacteria living in deep waters without oxygen.

It will lead to more purple, brown, or green hues in coastal or stratified areas, with less deep blue colour in water as phytoplankton decline. Eventually, oceans will evaporate completely as the sun expands to encompass the orbit of Earth.

At geological timescales nothing is permanent and changes in the colour of our oceans are therefore inevitable.

Cédric M. John, Professor and Head of Data Science for the Environment and Sustainability, Queen Mary University of London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Los Angeles wildfires rage out of control, testing firefighting resources

A U.S flag flies as fire engulfs a structure while the Palisades Fire burns during a windstorm on the west side of Los Angeles, California, U.S. January 7, 2025. REUTERS/Ringo Chiu

By Jackie Luna, Joe Brock and Matt McKnight

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) -Raging wildfires in Los Angeles killed at least two people, destroyed hundreds of buildings and stretched firefighting resources and water supplies to the limit on Wednesday, as more than 70,000 people were ordered to evacuate.

Fierce winds were hindering firefighting operations and fueling the fires, which have burned unimpeded since they began on Tuesday.

A lack of water also hampered efforts, particularly in Pacific Palisades, an upscale coastal enclave where a wildfire has consumed nearly 12,000 acres (4,856 hectares).

The municipal water system there relies on three large tanks that hold approximately a million gallons (3.78 million liters) each, Janisse Quinones, chief executive of the city’s water and power department, said at a press conference. The demand for water to fight fires at lower elevations was making it difficult to refill water tanks at higher elevations.

The third and final tank hit empty around 3 a.m., she said, causing some hydrants to run dry. With winds and smoke limiting the ability to offer air support, firefighters were left without enough water to battle the flames.

“We pushed the system to the extreme,” Quinones said. “We’re fighting a wildfire with urban water systems, and that is really challenging.” Officials urged residents to limit water usage.

The fire in the Palisades, a picturesque neighborhood in west Los Angeles County home to many film, television and music stars, has burned more than 1,000 structures, making it one of the most destructive fires in Los Angeles history. The wildfire had quadrupled in size between early Wednesday and midday.

Another blaze, the Eaton fire, east of Los Angeles near Pasadena, has also spread explosively since it was sparked on Tuesday evening, covering more than 10,000 acres (4,047 hectares) as of late Wednesday morning. Two fatalities were reported there, though officials did not have further details.

The Hurst fire, in Sylmar in the San Fernando Valley northwest of Los Angeles, had exceeded 500 acres. All three fires were 0% contained, officials said.

Officials said they were starting to run short of personnel.

“There are not enough firefighters in LA County to address four separate fires of this magnitude,” said Marrone, referring to a smaller fourth fire that has been contained.

Shaun Tate, 45, said he fled his home in Altadena, a Los Angeles suburb in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains, at 4:15 a.m. when he saw flames rolling towards his house.

“I came out of the house because I heard something fly off the roof,” Tate said at an evacuation center in Pasadena.

“We packed up the SUV and drove down here,” he said. “I chose to save my laptop, my diabetic medication and a little bit of food.”

Officials warned that the gusty winds were forecast to persist throughout the day.

“We are absolutely not out of danger yet, with the strong winds that continue to push through the city and the county today,” Los Angeles City Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said.

The skies above Los Angeles glowed red in some areas and were blanketed by thick smoke.

As the flames spread and residents began evacuating after the fires broke out on Tuesday, roads were so jammed that some people abandoned their vehicles to escape the fire. Emergency responders were going door to door to press evacuation orders.

California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on Tuesday. President Joe Biden planned to visit a Santa Monica fire station for a briefing from fire officials on Wednesday, the White House said.

President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office in two weeks, blamed Newsom‘s environmental policies for the disaster in a post on his Truth Social website.

The Los Angeles region had been ripe for fire going into the fall, when seasonal winds arrive in the region, after consecutive wet winters created an abundance of grass and vegetation that turned to fuel during an intensely hot summer, climate scientists said.

‘THIS CLOSE’

Approximately 100 of the 1,000 public schools in the Los Angeles Unified School District were shut down, Superintendent Alberto Carvalho told the press conference.

Pacific Palisades resident Cindy Festa said that as she evacuated, fires were “this close to the cars,” demonstrating with her thumb and forefinger.

“People left their cars on Palisades Drive. Burning up the hillside. The palm trees – everything is going,” Festa said from her car.

David Reed said he had no choice but to leave his Pacific Palisades home when police officers showed up at his door.

“They laid down the law,” Reed said.

He gathered his most important possessions and accepted a ride from officers to the evacuation center at the Westwood Community Center.

“I grabbed my trombone and the latest book I’ve been reading, which is my Jack Kerouac anthology here, because I’m a beatnik,” he said, adding that he could see flames approaching his home.

Pacific Palisades is one of the most expensive neighborhoods in the country. A typical home was valued at $3.7 million as of the end of 2023, according to Zillow, more than all but four other zip codes in the United States.

The fleeing evacuees included Hollywood celebrities such as Jamie Lee Curtis, Mandy Moore and Mark Hamill.

Hand weights rest lined up amid debris at the remains of a burnt structure, as powerful winds fueling devastating wildfires in the Los Angeles area force people to evacuate, in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood on the west side of Los Angeles, California, U.S. January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Daniel Cole

‘HISTORIC NATURAL DISASTER’

In the Pasadena area, the Eaton fire engulfed homes, a synagogue and a McDonald’s restaurant.

Almost 100 residents from a nursing home in Pasadena were evacuated, CBS News said. Video showed elderly residents, many in wheelchairs and on gurneys, crowded onto a smoky and windswept parking lot as fire trucks and ambulances attended to them.

Around 400,000 homes and businesses in southern California were without power on Wednesday, data from PowerOutage.us showed.

“We’re facing a historic natural disaster. And I think that can’t be stated strong enough,” Kevin McGowan, director of emergency management for Los Angeles County, said at the press conference.

The fire singed some trees on the grounds of the Getty Villa, a museum loaded with priceless works of art, but the collection remained safe largely because nearby bushes had been trimmed as a preventive measure, the museum said.

Before the fire started, the National Weather Service had issued its highest alert for extreme fire conditions for much of Los Angeles County from Tuesday through Thursday.

With low humidity and dry vegetation due to a lack of rain, the conditions were “about as bad as it gets in terms of fire weather,” the service said.(Reporting by Joe Brock and Matt McKnight Pasadena, California; Jackie Luna in Pacific Palisades, California; Jorge Garcia and Mike Blake in Los Angeles; and Daniel Trotta in Carlsbad, California; Additional reporting by Doina Chiacu, Jonathan Allen, Jackie Luna, David Ljunggren, Shubham Kalia, Gursimran Kaur and Kanjyik Ghosh; Writing by Joseph Ax; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Angus MacSwan, Mark Porter and Sandra Maler) Los Angeles wildfires rage out of control, testing firefighting resources

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How air pollution is contributing to cancers in India

New Delhi, (IANS): Increased exposure to carcinogens in the air is increasing the incidence of cancers of the lungs, bladder, breast, prostate, and blood, said health experts on National Cancer Awareness Day on Thursday.

National Cancer Awareness Day is observed on November 7 every year in India to raise awareness about the growing cancer burden in the country and inspire action towards prevention, early detection, and treatment.

India is home to over 1.4 billion people. Lifestyle changes, tobacco use, poor dietary habits, and inadequate physical activity are leading to a rapid surge in cancer cases.

About 800,000 new cancer cases are expected each year, with tobacco-related cancers accounting for as much as 35-50 per cent of all cancers in men and 17 per cent in women, According to estimates from the Health Ministry.

“Cancer rates are rising in India and have seen an upward trend in annual incidence rate. Currently, India records more than 14 lakh new cancer patients every year, and close to 9 lakh people die of it annually,” Dr. Abhishek Shankar, Assistant Professor, Department of Radiation Oncology, Dr BR Ambedkar Institute Rotary Cancer Hospital at AIIMS, Delhi, told IANS.

He attributed this rise to an increase in the "use of tobacco, alcohol, infections like HPV, Hepatitis virus and Helicobacter pylori, lifestyle changes, environmental factors, poor diets, and sedentary lifestyles".

While lifestyle factors play a major role, environmental changes -- particularly rising air pollution -- are also significant.

“India’s high levels of air pollution, especially PM2.5 exposure, are linked to rising lung cancer rates, including cases in non-smokers. Water and soil contamination from industrial pollutants increase risks for various cancers, impacting communities in industrial areas,” Shankar said.

The air quality in Delhi-NCR remained alarmingly poor on Thursday. As per the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), the average Air Quality Index (AQI) in the city was recorded at 362.

There is also substantial evidence from studies of humans and experimental animals as well as mechanistic evidence to support a causal link between outdoor (ambient) air pollution, especially PM 2.5 in outdoor air, with lung cancer and breast cancer incidence and mortality.

“It has a risk for other cancer types, such as bladder cancer, prostate cancer, leukaemia (blood cancer) but in limited numbers. Outdoor air pollution may also be associated with poorer cancer survival, although further research is needed,” Shankar said.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has classified outdoor air pollution as a Group 1 carcinogen, meaning there is sufficient evidence to conclude that it causes cancer in humans.

Air pollution in India is primarily caused by emissions from vehicles, industrial activities, and burning of biomass.

Dr Sajjan Rajpurohit, Senior Director - Medical Oncology, Max Super Speciality Hospital, told IANS that these pollutants contain carcinogenic substances such as benzene, formaldehyde, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Prolonged exposure to these substances can lead to cellular mutations and the development of cancer.

“Particulate Matter (PM2.5) is also one of the most harmful components of air pollution. The tiny particles can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream,” Rajpurohit said.

The health expert noted that children, the elderly, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions are particularly vulnerable to the effects of air pollution. Their increased susceptibility can lead to higher cancer rates in these groups, exacerbating the public health crisis.

Shankar called for a healthy lifestyle, including a balanced diet, regular exercise, and avoiding tobacco and alcohol along with reducing PM-2.5 exposure.

Dr. Sachin Trivedi, Director- Medical Oncology, HCG Cancer Center, also stressed the need for early detection for better treatment outcomes.He called for “regular screenings for breast, lung, colorectal, and oral cancers to help effectively manage cancer”. How air pollution is contributing to cancers in India | MorungExpress | morungexpress.com

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Global carbon emissions inch upwards in 2024 despite progress on EVs, renewables and deforestation

Susan Santa Maria, Shutterstock Pep Canadell, CSIRO; Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia; Glen Peters, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo; Judith Hauck, Universität Bremen; Julia Pongratz, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich; Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Exeter, and Robbie Andrew, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels continue to increase, year on year. This sobering reality will be presented to world leaders today at the international climate conference COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Our latest annual stocktake shows the world is on track to reach a new record: 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ emitted from fossil fuels in 2024. This is an increase of 0.8% from the previous year.

Adopting renewable energy and electric vehicles is helping reduce emissions in 22 countries. But it’s not enough to compensate for ongoing global growth in fossil fuels.

There were also signs in 2023 suggesting natural systems may struggle to capture and store as much CO₂ in the future as they have in the past. While humanity is tackling deforestation and the growth in fossil CO₂ emissions is slowing, the need to reach an immediate peak and decline in global emissions has never been so acute.

The Global Carbon Project

The Global Carbon Budget is an annual planetary account of carbon sources and sinks, which soak up carbon dioxide and remove it from the atmosphere.

We include anthropogenic sources from human activities such as burning fossil fuels or making cement as well as natural sources such as bushfires.

When it comes to CO₂ sinks, we consider all the ways carbon may be taken out of the atmosphere. This includes plants using CO₂ to grow and CO₂ being absorbed by the ocean. Some of this happens naturally and some is being actively encouraged by human activity.

Putting all the available data on sources and sinks together each year is a huge international effort involving 86 research organisations, including Australia’s CSIRO. We also use computer models and statistical approaches to fill out the remaining months to the end of the year.

Fossil fuel emissions up

This year’s growth in carbon emissions from fossil fuels is mainly from fossil gas and oil, rather than coal.

Fossil gas carbon emissions grew by 2.4%, signalling a return to the strong long-term growth rates observed before the COVID pandemic. Gas emissions grew in most large countries, but declined across the European Union.

Oil carbon emissions grew by 0.9% overall, pushed up by a rise in emissions from international aviation and from India.

The rebound in international air travel pushed aviation carbon emissions up 13.5% in 2024, although it’s still 3.5% below the pre-COVID 2019 level.

Meanwhile, oil emissions from the United States and China are declining. It’s possible oil emissions have peaked in China, driven by growth in electric vehicles.

Coal carbon emissions went up by 0.2%, with strong growth in India, small growth in China, a moderate decline in the US, and a large decline in the European Union. Coal use in the US is now at its lowest level in 120 years.

The United Kingdom closed its last coal power plant in 2024, 142 years after the first one was opened. With strong growth in wind energy replacing coal, the UK CO₂ emissions have almost been cut in half since 1990.

Changing land use

Carbon emissions also come from land clearing and degradation. But some of that CO₂ can be taken up again by planting trees. So we need to examine both sources and sinks on land.

Global net CO₂ emissions from land use change averaged 4.1 billion tonnes a year over the past decade (2014–23). This year is likely to be slightly higher than average with 4.2 billion tonnes, due to drought and fires in the Amazon. That amount represents about 10% of all emissions from human activities, the rest owing to fossil fuels.

Importantly, total carbon emissions – the sum of fossil fuel emissions and land-use change emissions – have largely plateaued over the past decade, but are still projected to reach a record of just over 41 billion tonnes in 2024.

The plateau in 2014–23 follows a decade of significant growth in total emissions of 2% per year on average between 2004 and 2013. This shows humanity is tackling deforestation and the growth of fossil CO₂ emissions is slowing. However, this is not enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory.

Annual CO₂ emissions continue to increase, reaching a record high in 2024. The shaded area around each line shows the uncertainty in the estimates. Global Carbon Project, CC BY

More countries are cutting emissions – but many more to go

Fossil CO₂ emissions decreased in 22 countries as their economies grew. These countries are mainly from the European Union, along with the United States. Together they represent 23% of global fossil CO₂ emissions over the past decade (2014–23).

This number is up from 18 countries during the previous decade (2004–13). New countries in this list include Norway, New Zealand and South Korea.

In Norway, emissions from road transport declined as the share of electric vehicles in the passenger car fleet grew – the highest in the world at over 25% – and biofuels replaced fossil petrol and diesel. Even greater reductions in emissions have come from Norway’s oil and gas sector, where gas turbines on offshore platforms are being upgraded to electric.

In New Zealand, emissions from the power sector are declining. Traditionally the country has had a high share of hydropower, supplemented with coal and natural gas. But now wind and particularly geothermal energy is driving fossil generation down.

We are projecting further emissions growth of 0.2% in China, albeit small and with some uncertainty (including the possibility of no growth or even slight decline). China added more solar panels in 2023 than the US did in its entire history.

Individual country emissions vary widely, but there are some signs of progress towards decarbonisation. Global Carbon Budget 2024/Global Carbon Project, CC BY-ND

Nature shows troubling signs

In the 1960s, our activities emitted an average of 16 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year globally. About half of these emissions (8 billion tonnes) were naturally removed from the atmosphere by forests and oceans.

Over the past decade, emissions from human activities reached about 40 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year. Again, about half of these emissions (20 billion tonnes) were removed.

In the absence of these natural sinks, current warming would already be well above 2°C. But there’s a limit to how much nature can help.

In 2023, the carbon uptake on land dropped 28% from the decadal average. Global record temperatures, drought in the Amazon and unprecedented wildfires in the forests of Canada were to blame, along with an El Niño event.

As climate change continues, with rising ocean temperatures and more climate extremes on land, we expect the CO₂ sinks to become less efficient. But for now, we expect last year’s land sink decline will recover to a large degree as the El Niño event has subsided.

About half of the CO₂ emissions were removed from the atmosphere by forests and oceans. When we tally up all of the sources compared to the sinks, the budget should balance. We find a slight imbalance of 1.6Gt/year due to limitations of the data. Global Carbon Budget 2024/Global Carbon Project, CC BY

Looking ahead

Our latest carbon budget shows global fossil fuel emissions continue to increase, further delaying the peak in emissions. Global CO₂ emissions continue to track in the middle of the range of scenarios developed by the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We have yet to bend the emissions curve into the 1.5–2°C warming territory of the Paris Agreement.

This comes at a time when it’s clear we need to be reducing emissions, to avoid worsening climate change.

We also identified some positive signs, such as the rapid adoption of renewable energy and electric cars as they become cheaper and more accessible, supporting the march toward a net-zero emissions pathway. But turning these trends into global decarbonisation requires a far greater level of ambition and action.

Pep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO; Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, University of East Anglia; Glen Peters, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo; Judith Hauck, Helmholtz Young Investigator group leader and deputy head, Marine Biogeosciences section at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Universität Bremen; Julia Pongratz, Professor of Physical Geography and Land Use Systems, Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich; Pierre Friedlingstein, Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, University of Exeter, and Robbie Andrew, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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2024 on track to be hottest year on record

Baku, (IANS) The year 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record after an extended streak of exceptionally high monthly global mean temperatures, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The report, released during the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or COP29, noted that the ambitions of the Paris Agreement are “in great peril.”

The January-September global mean surface air temperature was 1.54 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, boosted by a warming El Nino event, according to an analysis of six international datasets used by WMO.

The report also noted that 2015-2024 will be the warmest 10 years on record, with the accelerating loss of ice from glaciers, sea-level rise and ocean heating.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said it is important to note that monthly or annual data "does not mean that we have failed to meet the Paris Agreement goal," Xinhua news agency reported.

"However, It is essential to recognize that every fraction of a degree of warming matters... every additional increment of global warming increases climate extremes, impacts and risks," Saulo added.Paris Agreement aims to keep the long-term global average surface temperature increase to well below two degrees above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the warming to 1.5 degrees. 2024 on track to be hottest year on record | MorungExpress | morungexpress.com

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Pacific leaders call for greater focus on sea-level rise

Suva, (IANS): The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) leaders have agreed to elevate the issue of sea level rise politically, including at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), and strongly called for the inclusion of sea-level rise as a standalone agenda item in the UNGA and other relevant UN processes, according to a communique issued by the PIF.

The five-day 53rd PIF Leaders' Meeting concluded on Friday in Nuku'alofa, the capital of Tonga, with climate change and resilience at the top of the agenda.

The final forum communique noted that regional leaders had discussed the "broad-ranging nature of climate change" and recognized that sea level rise is a "severe manifestation of climate change that threatens Pacific communities, especially in low-lying nations."

Leaders reaffirmed their support for and commitment to the Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF), which will help vulnerable Pacific people exposed to climate change and disaster risks. They recognized the PRF as the first Pacific-led, member-owned and managed, and people-centered climate and disaster resilience financing facility, with an initial financing target of 500 million U.S. dollars by 2026, the document said, Xinhua news agency reported.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a "global SOS" in Tonga on the sidelines of the PIF Leaders' meeting, urging governments to step up climate action, including slashing global emissions, phasing out fossil fuels and boosting climate adaptation investments, to "save our seas" and "protect people from current and future risks."

The secretary-general also expressed his full support for the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, saying he will do his best to help mobilize international resources for the PRF to combat sea-level rise.

According to the communique, the 54th PIF Leaders' Meeting will be held in Solomon Islands in September next year. Source: https://www.morungexpress.com/pacific-leaders-call-for-greater-focus-on-sea-level-rise

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World records hottest August with 2024 poised to be warmest year

Brussels, September 6 (IANS): August 2024 has tied with August 2023 as the hottest August on record globally, with the average surface air temperature hitting 16.82 degrees Celsius, 0.71 degrees Celsius above the average August temperature from 1991 to 2020, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

The data also showed that August 2024 was 1.51 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels, marking the 13th time in the past 14 months that the global average surface air temperature has surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a critical threshold set by the Paris Agreement, Xinhua news agency reported.

Meanwhile, year-to-date data indicates 2024 is on course to become the hottest year on record, as the global average temperature for January to August was 0.7 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, the highest on record for this period.

C3S stressed that the average temperature anomaly for the remainder of the year would need to drop by at least 0.3 degrees Celsius to avoid surpassing 2023 as the hottest year -- a highly unlikely scenario based on historical data.

"During the past three months of 2024, the globe has experienced the hottest June and August, the hottest day on record, and the hottest boreal summer on record. This string of record temperatures is increasing the likelihood of 2024 being the hottest year on record," said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S.

Burgess emphasised that the temperature-related extreme events seen this summer foreshadow more severe and destructive climate impacts unless urgent measures are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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India made significant progress on climate action: Economic Survey

New Delhi, (IANS) Recognising its position as one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, India has made significant progress on environmental protection, according to the Economic Survey 2023-24, tabled in Parliament on Monday.

The document was tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, a day ahead of the Union Budget presentation.

The Survey showed that the country’s energy needs are expected to grow 2 to 2.5 times by 2047.

The country has “successfully reduced the emission intensity vis-a-vis its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 33 per cent between 2005 and 2019, thus achieving the initial Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) target for 2030, 11 years ahead of scheduled time”.

The country has “also committed to increasing the share of non-fossil fuel-based electricity to 40 per cent and enhancing forest cover to absorb 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030”.

It showed that the country’s GDP grew with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of about seven per cent between 2005 and 2019. On the other hand, the emissions grew at a CAGR of about four per cent, that is, “the rate of emissions growth is lower than the rate of growth of our GDP”.

“This shows that India has successfully decoupled its economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions, reducing the emission intensity of its GDP,” the Survey said.

As per the Survey, India’s primary energy needs in 2022-23 were met with almost “84 per cent from coal, oil and natural gas combined”.

With the addition of renewables, “the share of non-fossil power capacity increased to 45.4 per cent as of May 2024 from around 32 per cent in April 2014”.

The Survey attributed these to recent initiatives such as PM-Surya Ghar Yojana, launched in February 2024, harnessing India’s 7,600 km long coastline for wind energy; and the Green Hydrogen Mission which targets five MMT of green hydrogen by 2030.

Meanwhile, India has also led several international initiatives towards climate change mitigation and building resilience. These include the International Solar Alliance (ISA), One World, One Sun, One Grid, The Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, The Infrastructure for Resilient Island States, and the goal of Net Zero, the Leadership Group for Industry Transition.

To sustain its economic growth rate over a quarter century and do it sustainably, India needs to keep “the environment and climate in mind”, said the Survey.

It also called for “the integration of climate change strategies into national development policy and planning as not merely an environmental imperative but more, as it impacts socio-economic stability, public health, banking, and public finances.

The Economic Survey is prepared by the Economics Division of the Department of Economic Affairs of the Finance Ministry under the guidance of India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) India made significant progress on climate action: Economic Survey | MorungExpress | morungexpress.com

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YouTuber ‘MrBeast’ Just Removed 17,000 Tons of Ocean Trash by Harnessing Social Media Influencers and Fans

MrBeast announcing his TeamSeas milestone

The world’s most influential YouTuber has accomplished an incredible feat of crowdfunding after leading dozens of the world’s top influencers to drive donations and volunteering toward the goal of cleaning up the oceans.

34 million pounds of trash and plastic were removed from oceans and rivers all across the globe, with each dollar donated verified by an independent third party as going directly to removing one pound of trash.

Partnering with the Ocean Conservancy and the Ocean Cleanup, the famous YouTuber MrBeast, aka James Donaldson, launched the TeamSeas initiative, which brought together hundreds of voices with large followers on social media to channel their channels for the good of the ocean.

In January 2022, it was announced by MrBeast and his partner on the project, YouTuber Mark Rober, that they had actually raised $30 million, and that the mammoth cleanup project would begin.

Much of the money was needed for hiring organizers to train volunteers, equip them with supplies, and hire specialists, boats, and even robots.

On July 16th, MrBeast uploaded a video announcing the trash removal was a success, and some of the participation figures were staggering.

Fundraising, volunteering, awareness raising, and various forms of digital content like videos and video games from over 200 countries and territories all worked to turn the internet’s gaze to the TeamSeas website where people could donate and select how many pounds of trash they wanted removed from the oceans.

Their content generated 1.3 billion views cumulatively across 40,000 social channels. When the months of clean-up began 170,000 people from dozens of countries volunteered.

MrBeast routinely engages in philanthropy, and GNN reported on July 4th he had succeeded in building 100 homes and giving them away for free to disaster-stricken families all across Central and South America.

YouTuber ‘MrBeast’ Just Removed 17,000 Tons of Ocean Trash by Harnessing Social Media Influencers and Fans

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Researchers link hot weather with increased headaches for people with migraines

New Delhi, (IANS) Scientists have found a link between increased headaches and hot temperatures for individuals with migraines, saying that as temperatures rise, so do chances for migraine attacks.

Weather change is one of the most common trigger factors for migraine, said Vincent Martin, director of the Headache and Facial Pain Center at the US-based University of Cincinnati.

The study looked at the use of Fremanezumab drug and whether it could prevent headaches caused by high temperatures.

Fremanezumab is administered by injection under the skin and is part of a set of monoclonal antibodies that have hit the market in the past six years to treat migraine in patients.

Researchers cross-referenced 71,030 daily diary records of 660 migraine patients with regional weather data and found that for every temperature increase of 0.12 degrees Celsius, there was a 6 per cent increase in the occurrence of any headache.

However, during the periods of Fremanezumab treatment, the association completely disappeared.

"This study is the first to suggest that migraine-specific therapies that block Calcitonin Gene-Related Peptide (CGRP) may treat weather-associated headaches," said Fred Cohen, a study co-author and assistant professor of medicine at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York.

If the results are confirmed in future studies, the drug therapy has the potential to help many people with weather-triggered migraine.

Hippocrates, the father of medicine, believed that weather and medicine were intimately linked.

"A couple thousand of years later, we are proving that weather matters in human health," said Al Peterlin, who retired as chief meteorologist at the US Department of Agriculture and co-author of the study.The findings from the study were set to be presented at the American Headache Society's 66th annual scientific meeting in San Diego, California, over the weekend. Researchers link hot weather with increased headaches for people with migraines | MorungExpress | morungexpress.com

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Snowstorm hits US: 2,000 flights canceled, more than 2,400 delayed

Chicago: America was affected by snow storm. Many flights in the Midwest and South had to be canceled while many were delayed. Due to which thousands of passengers were stranded at the airport itself. According to information, flight tracking website statistics revealed that more than 2,400 flights have been delayed so far while more than 2,000 flights have been canceled due to the storm. About 40 percent of the 36 percent of flights departing Chicago's O'Hare International Airport were canceled, and about 60 percent of the flights departing Chicago Midway International Airport were canceled. Meanwhile, other affected airports include Denver International and Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport. More than 200 United and Alaska Airlines flights were canceled each day this week due to the Federal Aviation Authority's forced grounding. The FAA and Boeing are still trying to agree on an inspection protocol that would allow those flights to resume flying.અમેરિકામાં બરફના તોફાનનો કેર: ૨૦૦૦ ફલાઇટ રદ, ૨૪૦૦થી વધુ મોડી પડી

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UK SMBs could save 280m tonnes of CO2e by hitting 2030 targets

22 April 2024: This Earth Day, BT is announcing a new partnership with the UK Business Climate Hub (UKBCH) that aims to help UK small & medium businesses (SMBs) halve CO2e emissions by 2030 and empower them to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. It comes as research suggests UK SMBs would stop 280 million tonnes of CO2e emissions from reaching the atmosphere if they hit this near-term goal*.

There are 5.5 million SMBs in the UK, making up more than 99% of all businesses nationwide. Collectively they account for almost half (44%**) of non-household emissions, making their role in tackling the climate crisis critical to the UK’s chances of hitting net zero by 2050.

Nine in ten (90%) of SMEs would like to address climate change at their business, but find it challenging to get started and identify the right tools to mitigate their environmental impact.*** To help them map out a path to net zero, the UKBCH, a shared endeavour between industry and government, has welcomed BT as a key industry partner and member of its Advisory Board, and has developed ‘Seven Steps to Sustainability’ to empower SMBs to get started today.

The new partnership aims to bring together BT’s expertise in supporting more than one million small business customers with the UK Business Climate Hub’s free resources to help businesses reduce their carbon footprint and their energy bills. Businesses can take the first step today by checking out the available, free resources from the UKBCH on its website. They can also work towards the SME Climate Commitment, by making a pledge to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, achieve net zero emissions before 2050, and report progress on these goals annually.

Chris Sims, Managing Director, Small and Medium Business at BT, says: “BT set its first carbon reduction target more than 30 years ago, and we’ve had a strong track record of hitting our sustainability goals ever since. But we have size on our side – and from speaking to our small business customers we know that with limited resources, many of them struggle to find the time, the funding, or the guidance to help them prioritise sustainability. With the UK Business Climate Hub we are beginning our journey to reach more businesses with free tools and practical support to help them set the foundations for a greener future, and ultimately, reach Net Zero.”

Chris Taylor, Net Zero Programme Director at the Broadway Initiative – which manages the UK Business Climate Hub – adds: “We’re delighted to partner with BT and are energised about the impact we will make together. The UK Business Climate Hub works closely with the government and our industry partners to produce essential guides for SMBs across multiple sectors, with practical advice on how to reduce carbon emissions and save on energy bills. Whether it’s a tailored net zero plan for individual SMBs, free carbon footprint calculators or an online training course on cutting emissions, with our tools and support, SMBs can reduce both costs and emissions and transition to a greener economy – the ultimate win-win.”

Seven steps to Sustainability: Practical tips for all sectors

The UKBCH has charted a course for SMBs to build and achieve a greener future. The ‘Seven Steps to Sustainability’ break down key actions so that businesses can create an achievable plan. These include:

1. Understand the basics: An overview of net zero and how to reduce your business’s carbon footprint and any legal requirements on reducing carbon emissions.

2. Involve your team: Engage staff across the business to develop carbon reduction and energy saving initiatives. This could include an internal working group or hiring an external consultant.

3. Make the SME Climate Commitment: Commit to halving business emissions by 2030, reach net zero by 2050, and report yearly on progress towards these goals.

4. Make a plan: Measure current emissions from fuel consumption and electricity use. Taking stock of current business activities that contribute to overall carbon emissions will enable businesses to identify key focus areas.

5. Take action: Deploy technologies and new approaches to save energy and reduce carbon. Businesses can get sector-specific information here, and learn about specific actions that can be taken here.

6. Find finance and support: Businesses across England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales can identify specific programmes or initiatives to help them to finance their sustainability journey.

7. Look beyond your business: Identify opportunities across the business’s entire value chain to reduce its impact, including creating a greener supply chain, using electric vehicles and transport, and get low carbon product labels and certifications.SMBs can visit the UKBCH website to access an entire library of free resources, tools and advice to cut carbon, reduce energy use, and chart a course to net zero: https://businessclimatehub.uk/ UK SMBs could save 280m tonnes of CO2e by hitting 2030 targets | Total Telecom

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It’s time to strike an environmental grand bargain between businesses, governments and conservationists – and stop doing things the hard way

jenmartin/Shutterstock Peter Burnett, Australian National University

April has been a bad month for the Australian environment. The Great Barrier Reef was hit, yet again, by intense coral bleaching. And Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek delayed most of her Nature Positive Plan reforms.

True, Plibersek did reject the controversial Toondah Harbour proposal, but only after a near decade-long grassroots campaign to save the wetland from an apartment and retail development deemed clearly unacceptable by her own department.

Rather than fall back into old patterns of developers versus conservationists, we have a rare chance to find a compromise. Labor’s embrace of “Nature Positive” – a promising new environmental restoration approach – opens up the possibility of a grand bargain, whereby developers and business get much faster approvals (or rejections) in exchange for ensuring nature as a whole is better off as a result of our activities.

Sustainable development was meant to save us

First, a quick recap. We were meant to have put the era of saving the environment one place at a time to bed a long time ago. Around 1990, governments worldwide took to the then-novel idea of sustainable development. We even had a special Australian variant, ecologically sustainable development, which our federal and state governments backed unanimously. This led to a national strategy and incorporation into well over 100 laws, including flagship laws like the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act, passed in 1999.

The basic idea was, and is, sound: encourage development to improve our quality of life, while maintaining the ecological processes on which life depends.

But it’s not what ended up being legislated. The 1990’s laws did not require developers to make their projects sustainable. Typically, sustainable development was watered down into principles ministers only had to “consider”.

Meanwhile, our ecosystems have continued to go downhill. And in a 2020 review of the laws, Graeme Samuel pronounced the EPBC Act a failure.

Nature, positive?

When Labor was elected in 2022, it promised a new goal: “Nature Positive”.

This idea is no mere slogan. Nature positive is a serious policy idea. Think of it as the biodiversity counterpart to net zero emissions.

The goal is ambitious: stop the decline by 2030 and set about restoring what has been lost for a full recovery of nature by 2050. Rather than ticking boxes on whether principles had been considered, regulators would answer a much more basic question: will this development deliver a net positive outcome for nature?

Measuring progress is core to nature positive. We would take an environmental snapshot at the outset and track the gains and losses from there.

Like sustainable development before it, nature positive has been adopted with gusto by the Australian government, internationally and domestically.

In 2022, Plibersek committed to “stop the slide” and to “bake [the Nature Positive reforms] into law”.

Now, suddenly, we have lost momentum. The crucial part of the reforms – embedding nature positive in stronger environment laws – has been kicked down the road.

Plibersek has blamed complexity, extensive consultation and the need to get it right. Others see political concerns.

Could we strike a grand environmental bargain?

By pushing these laws back, Plibersek has effectively turned the already extended consultation process into an open-ended negotiation. Given consultation will keep running indefinitely, we’re now in the realm of regulatory co-design, previously only on offer to First Nations representatives for new cultural heritage protection laws.

Co-design implies proceeding by consensus. It would be politically embarrassing to run a consultation over years only to bring down the policy guillotine.

Consensus in turn raises the possibility of a grand environmental bargain, built around nature positive. Could this work? Might environment groups settle for a limited form of nature positive? Might business, in return for much faster approvals or rejections, support much stronger legal protection, especially for particularly vulnerable or important ecosystems?

Samuel certainly thinks so. At a recent Senate Inquiry, he recounted telling a meeting during his review:

If you each stick to your aspirations 100%, you’ll end up getting nothing. If you’re prepared to accept 80%-plus of your aspirations, you’ll get them, and that will be a quantum leap forward from the abysmal failure that we’ve had for two and a half decades

What might an 80% agreement look like?

If we are to turn decline into recovery, we need to ensure each natural system is intact. That is, it retains the minimum level of environmental stocks (such as animals, plants and insects) and flows (such as water, nutrients) needed to sustain ecological health.

If flows of water into wetlands drop below a certain threshold, they’re not wetlands any more. AustralianCamera/Shutterstock

Such thresholds for ecological health are everywhere. For example, keeping the platypus off the endangered list would involve maintaining its population close to current levels and working out how much of its riverbank habitat should be conserved.

For policymakers, this suggests environmental laws should define minimum viability thresholds. Some thresholds would be absolute; others would be crossable in one location provided equivalent restoration was done in another.

Environmental groups could take satisfaction that thresholds would be maintained in most cases. Ecosystems would function, rivers would flow. But governments would still override thresholds for important economic and social reasons, say to approve a critical minerals project.

What’s in it for corporate Australia? Business would gain upfront certainty about what can be approved and quicker approvals for projects. Environmental litigation would fall. But development options would be narrowed and offsets would become more expensive.

The government would achieve a key goal: major environmental reform. But it would have to say no more often, and be transparent about crossing environmental thresholds.

It would have to finance the science and planning needed. And it would need to boost investment in environmental restoration, to compensate for using override powers and for the cumulative impact of smaller-scale activities.

A grand bargain along these lines would not deliver nature positive in full. We’d still be losing nature due to climate change. But it might go close enough to offer hope of long-term recovery.

Is such a deal feasible? It depends on how players read the incentives for compromise. For example, business will not want to be locked out of prospective development areas, but will also be worried about the possibility of a minority Labor government dependent on the Greens next year.

Nature positive in Australia is down – but opportunity remains.

Peter Burnett, Honorary Associate Professor, ANU College of Law, Australian National University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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